Trading Tools

The Surprise Factor

• If Actual > Forecast = Usually Bullish (+).
• If Actual < Forecast = Usually Bearish (-).

Pre-release Strategy

1. Identify: Filter for 3-star events only.
2. Baseline: Check the 'Forecast' number.
3. Buffer: Don't trade 5 mins before the release; wait for the initial price spike to exhaust.

Central bank Rates

Decisions by Fed, ECB, or BoE set the long-term trend for currencies.

Non-Farm Payrolls

High-impact US employment data. Always expect heavy USD volatility.